The SNP’s annual conference, beginning this week in Perth, comes immediately after the meeting between Alex Salmond and David Cameron in Edinburgh to sign the historic agreement setting out the terms of the referendum on Scottish independence, to be held in the autumn of 2014. The agreement does not include a second question on more powers, as the SNP had desired, but it does allow for 16 year olds to be given a vote, which the SNP hope will bolster its support.
According to the most recent poll this is support the nationalists and the Yes campaign as a whole sorely needs, with two thirds of Scottish voters still not convinced when it comes to independence. These polling numbers have remained more or less the same since the SNP won its groundbreaking majority at the last Scottish elections in 2010. It suggests that a clear chasm exists in the minds of many SNP voters between running a devolved administration and full separation. Bridging this chasm, along with changing the minds of the rest of the two thirds of Scottish voters who currently support remaining in the union, will be a major challenge for the Yes campaign over the next two years. It is also one that will weigh heavily on the minds of SNP delegates in Perth this week.
When it comes to the progressive wing of the pro-independence movement, the challenge of offering an alternative vision distinct from that being offered by the SNP is massive given the extent to which the issue has been dominated by the nationalists. This conflation between the SNP and independence is deeply entrenched within Scottish society, even though technically if the Yes campaign were to win a majority in 2014 it would be followed by fresh elections in 2016 to elect a government, which might not necessarily be formed by the SNP. However as things stand the shadow cast by the SNP and Salmond over the issue is so great it is hard to conceive of another party or political vision challenging its dominance in an independent Scotland post-referendum.
A cursory examination of the SNP’s current policies could be interpreted as progressive. In contradistinction to the current Westminster government they have refused to introduce tuition fees for Scottish students entering higher education, cancelled all PFI and PPP contracts within the NHS in Scotland (introduced by Labour), maintained free personal care for the elderly, free bus passes for the elderly (both also introduced by Labour), introduced free prescriptions, committed to a five year council tax freeze across all 32 Scottish local councils, and remains committed to ending Trident if and when Scotland becomes independent.
Closer examination reveals the opposite to be the case, however. The policy of no tuition fees for students entering higher education is being funded by the introduction of swingeing cuts to the funding of FE colleges, a traditional route onto university for students from low income backgrounds. The SNP intend cutting £74million from Scotland’s 41 further education colleges by 2015. Moreover, bursaries for worst-off students will be cut in 2013 from £95million to £84million, thus robbing many students of the funds they need for essentials such as travel and books.
With regard to the cancellation of PFI and PPP contracts, the introduction of the Scottish Future Trust in 2008 to replace it amounts to the same thing – namely the leveraging of private finance to invest in infrastructure projects, NHS included. Scotland’s biggest public service union, Unison, produced a briefing setting out its concerns over the role of the Scottish Future Trust in government finance when it was introduced in 2008.
As for the council tax freeze, this deprives local councils of revenue required to maintain public services and jobs that are used predominately by people on low incomes. In of itself it is not progressive and does nothing to address the regressive nature of the council tax and the need to replace it with one that is tailored to the ability to pay. Add to this the fact that child poverty in Scotland has gone up under the SNP (it is now 1 in 4), and one of the first things the nationalists did upon taking office was cut Labour’s scheme of free central heating for the elderly, the word progressive becomes increasingly inappropriate where the SNP is concerned.
When it comes to international issues one of the main arguments in support of the Scottish Nationalist Party has been its opposition to the war in Iraq and its pledge to end Scotland’s participation in ‘illegal wars’. In truth this is a semantic sleight of hand, as it means that any future war which carries the imprimatur of the UN Security Council will be supported by a future SNP Scottish government. The SNP support the war in Afghanistan, supported the NATO intervention in Libya, and the leadership’s U-turn over NATO membership means that it envisions Scotland providing men and materiel to future NATO missions around the world. More crucially, and worryingly, the ability of the SNP to scrap Trident will be made more difficult in light of this U-turn. Trident is part of NATO’s military apparatus and its continuing strategic base on the Clyde would likely constitute a condition of Scotland being granted membership.
On the economy, the SNP holds Norway up as the economic template of a future independent Scotland, which significantly is not a member of the EU and has created a hugely successful oil fund for future generations. The high price of oil has seen Norway’s economy not only protected from being overly impacted by the global economic crisis but register increased growth. It is an economy in which the state enjoys a large footprint, and in which a strong welfare state and large public sector combines with a commitment to progressive taxation to provide its citizens with among the highest living standards of any advanced economy.
But here’s the rub. If the SNP intend to emulate Norway’s social and economic model it will have to commit to nationalising the oil and other key sectors of the economy, while raising taxes for the rich, business, and high earners at the same time. This path is contradicted by the party’s intention of reducing corporation tax to 15 percent, thus entering Scottish workers in a race to the bottom for jobs.
The question of what an independent Scotland’s currency would be has yet to be convincingly addressed. With the eurozone in a state of crisis the viability of the euro as the new Scottish currency is questionable. And even if possible, how does an independent Scotland’s entry into the EU square with the SNP’s flagship economic policy of reducing corporation tax? Ireland got away with this reform at a time when the global economy was enjoying a boom. Now the situation is much different, with the EU unlikely to rubber stamp any new member state setting a rate of corporation tax as low as 15 percent.
The validity of such a policy must also be examined in light of what it would mean in terms of wealth redistribution. If the objective is a low tax paradise for big business and he likes of Donald Trump, it contradicts Alex Salmond’s pledge to have Scotland set a ‘progressive example’ for other nations to follow. On the other hand if an independent Scotland were to retain sterling as its national currency it would be in the invidious position of having its interest rates set by the Bank of England. Where would this leave the question of sovereignty? Scotland in this scenario would be entering into a position of economic vulnerability to decisions made by the central bank of a foreign country, much the same as Panama vis-à-vis the United States.
These are all vital questions that have yet to be addressed by the SNP. More widely, the progressive wing of the Yes campaign has much work to do to make its argument for an alternative heard.

John on said:
Question Time was excellent tonight, with easily the best and most politically aware audience that I’ve seen on it for a long time. Easterhouse in Glasgow is one of the most deprived housing estates in Europe. It’s surely no accident that the level of deprivation corresponds to the level of political consciousness.
Mark Serwotka was his usual brilliant self. If Labour had people like him on its front bench independence would not even be an issue in Scotland now. Sturgeon was seriously grilled on the issue by the panel and the audience and looked rattled.
As I write in the article, the Yes campaign has got its work cut out over the next two years.
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jim mclean on said:
Gave up on Question Time a long time ago, switched to QI. Of course some of my Glesga pals think Easterhouse is quite posh. On a serious point the high level of support among the working class / Lumpen within the residual estates for independence is amazing. around 40% for 40% against. One thinks though it is a support that will not turn out come the day. When we look at the figures for the more affluent working class and middle classes who do use there vote the SNP are on to a loser. Have been to a couple of public meetings where Ms Sturgeon was on the panel, extremely nervous.
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jack ford on said:
I certainly don’t trust the SNP and suspect that if Scotland did go independent they’d move to the right very quickly. But if I lived in Scotland I’d be very tempted to vote yes in order to escape from the neoliberal establishment in Westminster.
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jim mclean on said:
your spam settings are still crap.
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Jim on said:
The “Independence in the EU” policy advocated since 1990 by Salmond as SNP leader then and now is indeed a contradiction in terms. Interestingly this is now becoming a focus for debate in Scotland (so much for it being a “bizarre” issue for the left as stated by some) as well as the equally nonsensical “we want independence but we want to keep the pound” position (not to mention the Queen and the equally absurd “you can be Scottish and British”) currently in vogue with the SNP. The pro (pseudo) independence campaign is being shown to be very shallow indeed.
Let’s hear what wee Eck has to say about NATO membership later today. Those EU members like Ireland who maintain a long held neutral position as regards international affairs have had to fight for years to maintain their independence in military affairs. Looks like the “Scottish” party is going to sell out even before they’re under direct pressure from imperialist interests.
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Jim on said:
“This conflation between the SNP and independence is deeply entrenched within Scottish society…” A wee bit like the idea that only the right wing of the Tory party and UKIP oppose the EU!
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SA on said:
“On the other hand if an independent Scotland were to retain sterling as its national currency it would be in the invidious position of having its interest rates set by the Bank of England. Where would this leave the question of sovereignty?”
Scotland could peg its currency to Sterling as Ireland did pre Euro. It would leave sovereignty in the same position as Ireland’s.
While we are on comparisons with Ireland low corporation tax there did not mean low wages, during the ‘Tiger’ years they compared favourably to the UK.
“Trident is part of NATO’s military apparatus and its continuing strategic base on the Clyde would likely constitute a condition of Scotland being granted membership.”
A condition too far given the polls. Though I doubt it would be set.
Many interesting views John I’m sure we will have a good discussion.
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jim mclean on said:
The Clyde Submarine Base is going nowhere. The Faslane / Coulport complex will be an Independent Scotland’s Guantanamo Bay. And your spam settings are still crap.
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Pingback: The SNP: Hogging the Spotlight « Notes from a Discrete Continent
onlyoneteaminessex on said:
I suppose that when the nationalist vote is lost, so too will be the SNP’s raison d’etre . With nowhere left to go … except maybe to become part of new British left-of-centre party to challenge New Labour. In my estimation that would at least resonate more with both the Sottish working class and that in Wales and England.
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Vanya on said:
Anyone see Tommy Sheridan was on The Week afer QT putting forward the socialist case for idependence?
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John on said:
I saw it. It was good to see him back talking politics. I liked his no more illegal wars comment with Campbell sitting there. But based on the rest of his intervention, and the debate on independence on QT earlier, I feel more than ever that the pro-independence camp has a huge mountain to climb to make a case that will convince a majority of Scots to vote for it.
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Stephen on said:
“If we can’t have a tory Government, the next best thing is an SNP Governemnt doing Tory things” (then) Scots Tory leader David McLetchie, 2009… and, the occasional populist flourish aside, is pretty much what we have. The SNP WELCOMED George Osborne’s cuts to Corporation Tax.. so the commitment isn’t just to lower Corporation Tax compared to England(itself a right wing position) as many assumed ..it’s a commitment to low corporate taxes full stop.
Alex Salmond is an admirer of Laffer Curve ‘Reaganomics’ The SNP have gone into every election campaign since (at least) 1992 with a commitment to cut business since 1992 – there has never been a mention of employment rights in any SNP manifesto since ( at least) 1999…
It’s interesting that Mr Salmond can run around California promising US corporations lower taxes in Scotland than the rest of the UK after Independence. But the SNP’s Social Security spokesperson, when asked if Child Benefit will remain universal had to resort to the catch all get out of “that will be a matter for the Scottish people”.
It’s the SNP’s Independence, not any socialist or progressive variety that is on offer – they will be the Government that negotiates the setting up of a separate state and will be in Government when it comes into force (and if international and historicel precedent is anything to go by, probably for a long time afterwards)
Transforming the UK into a series of competing neo liberal economies doesn’t strike me as a project something that socialists should be backing. (that’s before we get to smashing up the existing TU movement as is being suggested by some left wing independence advocates)
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Stephen on said:
The proposal isn’t that Scotland pegs it’s exchange rate to a foreign currency. That’s an economic policy that would make more or less sense depending on circumstance. The proposal is that Scotland only uses a foreign currency…that’s a very different thing.
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Vanya on said:
#12 I agree about TS. Didn’t see Question Time.
I just feel that socialist arguments are being diluted by and lost in the independence debate- the left nationalists like TS are arguing for a series of options that won’t be on the ballot paper, and the other argument is simply to maintain the status quo.
And what will those who argue, ‘for socialism we need independence’ say if the vote is to maintain the union?
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SA on said:
They will be in precisely in the same situation as the English Left with the exception that they can help elect a more progressive government.
However if there is a No vote I expect the powers of the Scottish Government will be curtailed by whatever means are convenient. The UK establishment is in no mood to tolerate a social democrat challenge to the neo liberal orthodoxy.
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Vanya on said:
Interesting article about the internal SNP debate about NATO membership in today’s Morning Star.
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sandy on said:
As a con man and a charlatan TS was the perfect man to lead the left nationalists in their attempt win political careers by pushing the lie that Scottish independence would be a step towards socialism. Unfortunately for the left nats his reckless and dishonest behaviour blew up the SSP project. Now his only real political hope is that the SNP will give him a role of some sort but that is very unlikely. He is viewed by the voting public as damaged goods . Clowns like the CWI and SWP will continue to hold him up as some sort of working class hero but the mass of the working class regard him as a joke and a vaudeville act.
sandy
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sandy on said:
“More widely, the progressive wing of the Yes campaign has much work to do to make its argument for an alternative heard.”
There is no progressive wing to the yes campaign. Those who claim that Scottish independence would be step forward to a fairer society (or among the dafter elements- a step towards socialism)- are either deluded or are attempting to delude us for the benefit of Capital. Just as in Flanders and Catalonia the Scottish independence movement is anti working class and pro big business. The nationalist fragmentation of the working class in britain will make the working class weaker not stronger. It should be obvious
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SA on said:
So in your view is that why support for independence is higher among the Scottish working class? They are just too stupid to see where their own interest lies?
That runs contrary to my experience where working people usualy have a fair idea where their interests are best served.
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sandy on said:
20# the majority of the working class in Scotland are opposed to Scottish independence. That is undeniable. SNP support has always been higher in rural areas and in the north east ie the middle class. The prize for the SNP has been to break into the central belt i.e. where the working class is centred. They have still not managed it. Check out the SNP conference which is on the TV at the moment for a snap shot of the class character of the SNP.
sandy
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jim mclean on said:
Calm down chaps. The highest percentage support for independence is within those areas of “high” levels of deprivation. I am at ease in stating that this is mainly a Lumpen support. A support that only briefly engaged with the democratic process with the emergence of the SSP. Now they see the SNP as the party to take them out of Desolation Row. The “affluent” working class are more at ease with Westminster.
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Jim on said:
SNP just voted to support membership of NATO. And ipso facto support for nuclear weapons!
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Jim on said:
And the conference mood music immediately after the vote – “You’ve got a friend” by James Taylor. You couldn’t make it up!
Oops previously posted it on the wrong thread – sorry.
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jim mclean on said:
George Osbourne just caught traveling 1st class on a standard ticket. LMFAO. RMT rules.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20008342
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Strategist on said:
#20 Flanders and Catalonia are both net contributors to the national exchequer creating upset that their tax dollars (or euros) are propping up weaker more feckless parts of the country.
So it’s an argument in part more closely resembling that of the Italian Lega Nord (or indeed of our own much-loved English Democrats). NB Not the whole story of course – in either Flanders or Catalonia.
Despite oil, I don’t think that’s an argument that the Scots Nats use. (Although clearly it was a factor at the outset of the North Sea oil boom.)
I disagree that “Capital” or very many capitalists (whether Scottish or of any other nationality) see Scots independence as a means of making more money or gaining more power over the working class.
However, if I was Scottish, I would be very worried about crony capitalism ruling in an independent Scotland and the SNP coming to resemble Fianna Fail. Nevertheless, if I was Irish, I wouldn’t be re-applying to join the UK, however pissed off with Fianna Fail I was.
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jack ford on said:
So NATO membership is now part of the SNPs program. What other concessions will they make to the establishment in order to present their “independent” Scotland acceptable to the powers that be? Quite a few I expect.
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sandy on said:
26# I am not saying that Capital favours Scottish independence( some sections do, some don’t)but I am saying that Capital does look favourable on the division caused within the working class by the promotion of nationalism.
Some Scottish nationalists do claim that Scotland’s oil is being used to prop up England. This is particularly true of left nationalists like TS. However this is not the mainstream message of the SNP which does differentiate it from the nationalists in Flanders and Catalonia who do gain mass support from the fact that these nations subsidise the rest of Belgium and Spain in respect of tax flow. This is one reason why the nationalisms of Flanders and Catalonia are more potent and thus more reactionary in effect than Scottish nationalism.
sandy
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SA on said:
That’s an interesting observation Jim. When SF began to build its electoral machine in the 26 that mobilsed support is what provided the initial breakthrough.
Wanting to escape Desolation Row is a powerful motivation and fear of ending up there is an even greater one.
I don’t have a vote in the referendum but if I did I would be weighing up which option would most likely keep my kids out of the Poor House.
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sandy on said:
29# Dont you think that building a working class socialist alternative to the pro austerity parties like the labour party and the SNP would be the best way of keeping our kids out of the poor house. The only way forward for the working class is to build a socialist response to Capitals attempt to throw us back to the conditions of a hundred years ago. How does supporting the neo liberal independence project of the SNP help build a socialist response.To put nation before class is not the way forward for socialists. The truth is that life for the working class in Scotland has got a lot worse in the last 4 years. The SNP government is imposing big cuts to the welfare state. All the signs are that in an independent Scotland the SNP government would make even bigger cuts.
sandy
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SA on said:
30. If there is to be a viable Socialist party in either England or Scotland I think its more likely to emerge post a Yes vote.
I do not think such a formation can come out of catechistic micro sects whose history demonstrates their redundancy and unfitness for purpose.
I also think McAllion puts it right you have to have nationalism before you can have internationalism. We all have to start where we are and there is no need to put nation before class.
Even as the SNP moves to reassure the horses pre referendum it still compares well to the other mainstream parties in the UK in terms of working class interests.
Until Scotland enjoys fiscal autonomy the blame for worsening of workers lives cannot honestly be put at their door. Even so as with other devolved administrations they have done more to protect working class interests than Westminister intends to.
As for Labour there may be hope for it yet in England although there is a mountain to climb to get back working class voters. In Wales its looking healthier but Labour in Scotland is an ugly thing to behold.
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John on said:
This is untrue. How do you arrive at this assertion.
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SA on said:
32. A clear comittment to maintaining Social Welfare, Free Education, and defence of the NHS as a public sector provider. These are good things that working class people want.
I cannot think of another mainstream party offering the same.
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John on said:
What about the massive cuts in funding for FE colleges to fund free tuition fees for higher education? Did you read the article? This is equates to depriving working class students of the possibility of gaining the qualifications needed to get into university in Scotland.
What about the fact that child poverty has gone up under the SNP. Free personal care for the elderly is a Labour policy. The Scottish Future Trust is PFI redux.
Free prescription charges is undoubtedly progressive, but that’s one policy.
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Calvin on said:
I thought Tommy Sheridan was very disappointing on This Week.
It was all about
“We… we… we…”
and
“You… you… you… Southerners…Southerners… Southerners”
He was quite open on having given up on the working class in Britain: “There is no British road to socialism”
So, he argues, Scotland should therefore escape from the union. The SNP “mixed market economy” will continue, and the debate and the choice will then be between the mixed market and socialism.
But this is wishful thinking. The SNP has been able to pose left ONLY because they have been able to extract certain concessions as the price to be paid for Scotland remaining in the union.
The SNP knows this and already they are positioning themselves as a responsible party of capitalism for an independent Scotland, and are busy jettisoning all their progressive policies.
Tommy was long on “Me I want this and me I want that”, but short on how and why independence would transform any of his wants into reality.
As Portillo said: “Scotland would have to become a low tax economy”
Whatever the pro-independence left might say and want, isn’t that the unglamorous truth?
It happened in the Irish Republic and led to a huge increase in inward investment as companies flocked to Ireland from elsewhere to take advantage of the tax breaks. Why wouldn’t Scotland follow suit?
I was at a Sinn Fein meeting in the House of Commons a few years ago, and a Tory MP (I think a former NI minister)asked the Sinn Fein speaker about their policy on corporation tax north of the border.
How could NI businesses possibly compete with their Southern counterparts whilst such a disparity in tax regimes prevailed?
The SF guy looked very uncomfortable, and understandably so. He was put in unenviable position of having to argue for cutting tax on big business in order to stem the flow of capital out of the NI economy. What else could he say?
Expect a similar response from English politicians of all stripes, particularly those in the north of England, should Scotland go independent and then cut corporation tax, as it inevitably will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01njvdz/This_Week_18_10_2012/ (from 6:00)
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Calvin on said:
where’s my post gone??
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Calvin on said:
I thought Tommy Sheridan was very disappointing on This Week.
It was all about
“We… we… we…”
and
“You… you… you… Southerners…Southerners… Southerners”
He was quite open on having given up on the working class in Britain: “There is no British road to socialism”
So, he argues, Scotland should therefore escape from the union. The SNP “mixed market economy” will continue, and the debate and the choice will then be between the mixed market and socialism.
But this is wishful thinking. The SNP has been able to pose left ONLY because they have been able to extract certain concessions as the price to be paid for Scotland remaining in the union.
The SNP knows this and already they are positioning themselves as a responsible party of capitalism for an independent Scotland, and are busy jettisoning all their progressive policies.
Tommy was long on “Me I want this and me I want that”, but short on how and why independence would transform any of his wants into reality.
As Portillo said: “Scotland would have to become a low tax economy”
Whatever the pro-independence left might say and want, isn’t that the unglamorous truth?
It happened in the Irish Republic and led to a huge increase in inward investment as companies flocked to Ireland from elsewhere to take advantage of the tax breaks. Why wouldn’t Scotland follow suit?
I was at a Sinn Fein meeting in the House of Commons a few years ago, and a Tory MP (I think a former NI minister)asked the Sinn Fein speaker about their policy on corporation tax north of the border.
How could NI businesses possibly compete with their Southern counterparts whilst such a disparity in tax regimes prevailed?
The SF guy looked very uncomfortable, and understandably so. He was put in unenviable position of having to argue for cutting tax on big business in order to stem the flow of capital out of the NI economy. What else could he say?
Expect a similar response from English politicians of all stripes, particularly those in the north of England, should Scotland go independent and then cut corporation tax, as it inevitably will.
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Jim on said:
That’s already happening. A North East council leader has already complained that Scotland has greater resources to entice business, I think he was talking about losing jobs via a transfer of an Amazon facility to Scotland.
Years ago the standard nationalists line when a factory closed in Scotland was “the jobs are going to England” intended of course to sow seeds of division. I think it’s becoming ever more likely that the Scottish working class will lose whatever the outcome of the referendum. If the vote is “Yes” we join the race to the bottom if the vote is “No” those reactionary rascals in the government will use it to tear up the post war redistributive concensus epitomised thro’ Barnett to cut the block grant.
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Jim on said:
McAllion might have said this but this formulation has been around forever, used in the past in arguments agin trotskyites who were opposed to “socialism in one country” etc. A wee tad ironic now it’s being used by the inheritors of that latter tradition!
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Tim Vanhoof on said:
Seeds of nationalist division were also enthusiastically sown by the Labour Party in Scotland which, together with the STUC bureaucracy, has specialised in agitating against solidarity with English workers with the argument of “saving Scottish jobs”.
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Jim on said:
Bollocks. It’s one thing criticising the loss of “Scottish” jobs and quite another using the crisis of manufacturing in Scotland, or anywhere else, on a nationalist basis.
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sandy on said:
41# The STUC and the labour party in Scotland have played the Scottish card for years. They have both promoted a “soft” or weak form of scottish nationalism. The call to save scottish jobs or act in the scottish interest are not the same as socialist politics which attempts to unite workers in a common struggle for a common interest. What is needed is (at the least) a European wide fightback uniting the struggle against austerity. Otherwise it will be divide and rule meaning the growth of mass poverty. Scottish nationalism whither of the Scottish labour or SNP variety is of no use to us in any fightback
sandy
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jim mclean on said:
Two leading SNP figures in the Highlands are quitting the party over its change in policy on membership of Nato.
John Finnie and Jean Urquhart,
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/highland-msps-quit-snp-over-nato-policy-change.1350983748
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Vanya on said:
Not sure where else to post this but I note that 2 Plaid MPs have condemned Cameron’s plan to celebrate the start of the 1st World War, one of them talking about the imperialistic policies of the great powers at the time.
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